As a follow-up to John's post below, over the weekend at DailyKos jpmassar wrote a post about the precarious future facing New Hampshire's same-sex marriage law. It's worth a read -- and it isn't pretty:
The "Live Free or Die" State is about to choose option B for its LGBT citizens. In November Republicans were elected in veto-proof majorities to both Houses of their Legislature -- 19-5 in the Senate, 298-102 in the House -- and it is their stated intention to repeal the marriage equality law that went into effect a year ago today. Taking away their citizens' freedom to marry, the state's motto leaves them but one other choice: death.Ugh.
Already four Legislative Service Requests (precursors to formal bills) with intent to redefine marriage solely between a man and a women have been filed by members of the new legislature. It seems all but certain that one such bill will be brought up and passed in the coming session, vetoed by Democratic Governor John Lynch, and then a veto override attempted.
What will it take to sustain the Governor's veto? Assuming all remaining Democrats would vote to sustain the veto, it would take four Republican Senators, for a total of 9 votes of out 24, or 32 Republican House members, for a total of 134 votes of out 400 to deny a two-thirds supermajority. My understanding is that the former (finding four Republican Senators) is considered extremely unlikely, leaving it to defenders of marriage equality to round up at least 32 House Republicans (and possibly more, if there are Democratic defectors) -- approximately 11% or one in every nine Republican House members.
I certainly don't know if that can be done, and nothing I've read on the subject is making any predictions at this point. But according to SeaCoastOnline, Jim Splaine, who sponsored the existing law, has done some calculations:Splaine looked at the numbers and said, if those who support marriage equality can find 50 or 60 Republicans "who will join the Democrats in upholding any veto," he believes they will succeed.That's seriously depressing, if true, but math doesn't lie: it mean that he believes that at least 18 Democrats would defect and vote for repeal.
We could actually see a state take away rights from its citizens -- again. Some New Hampshire Republicans do have a libertarian streak. We'll see how many actually stand up for the rights of individuals. And, you know all of those GOP presidential candidates (except Fred Karger) swarming through New Hampshire will jump on the bandwagon to repeal the marriage law. They'll be beating that same drum in Iowa. Political gay bashing is still a requisite for GOP leaders.
The post's conclusion is spot on:
Opponents of equality will stop at nothing to gain the victory they so desire: a rollback of human rights in New Hampshire. It's time for the LGBT Community and supporters to wake up from the pleasant dream that was the vote on Don't Ask, Don't Tell's still-to-be-realized repeal and smell the stench that is about to rise in New Hampshire. However badly I mix metaphors.It's an ugly stench. This one may end up being saved by the courts.
Hat tip, Scott Wooledge for sending the link.
