From Kerry Eleveld at Media Matters:
Therein lies the dilemma for the GOP: their core base of firebrand social-issue voters has the potential to pull them right over a cliff, especially on LGBT issues. And that’s a problem. Even with the economy dominating the 2012 cycle, elections are won on the margins, says John Green, a political science professor at the University of Akron – particularly in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
“In a close election, you don’t have to move many voters,” Green says, adding that some moderate and independent voters will be moveable on social issues. “In the battleground states,” he says, “it could be crucial.”
Green explains that some voters may not be able to draw a clear difference between Obama and his Republican rival on the economy. “They may say, ‘I don’t like what’s going on with economy, but I’m lost.’ So they’ll rely on another issue, which might be abortion, gay rights, the environment,” he says. “That’s the type of thing that can make a big difference in the general election even if they’re not the dominant issues.”
But one of the main differences this year in terms of LGBT issues is that Republicans aren’t just on the wrong side of history, they’re now decidedly on the wrong side of public opinion. In fact, the American public has moved enough that Green generally views lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights as a net-plus for Democrats. Although same-sex marriage is still somewhat contentious, he says, issues of basic respect and dignity in regards to employment, housing, and health care are no longer up for debate.
“The shift in public opinion on gay issues has made the pluses a little bit better on the Democratic side and probably the minuses a little bit bigger on the Republican side,” Green concludes.
