Endorsing marriage in the State of the Union: How evolving now may help in November

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney was asked last week again about President Obama’s position and evolution on marriage equality. Carney gave his standard answer that he wouldn’t speak to the President’s personal opinion and referred the press corps to other accomplishments on LGBT issues. Asked by Chris Johnson of The Blade if he’d rule in or out the President mentioning it in the State of the Union, Carney refused to answer either way.

Realistically, I do not think that this will be included in the State of the Union address, and the point is less about the venue in which Obama announces support of marriage equality and more the idea of doing it within the next couple of weeks.

In light of Gingrich’s South Carolina win and the inevitability of an extended primary, coming out for marriage equality would allow Obama to redirect the focus of the Republican primaries. As with all primaries, we’ve seen these candidates move to the far right of the political spectrum in an attempt secure the nomination. One of Romney’s central problems is that he is perceived to be too moderate. By announcing his support of marriage equality, Obama would drive the Republican field into a frenzy as they launched full scale attacks on Obama’s decision in order to beef up their support among evangelicals. It would also cause thrice married Newt Gingrich to talk about the sanctity of marriage more, which is as entertaining as it is cringe-worthy.

As has been outlined repeatedly by writers here, the shift in national opinion to over 50% of Americans supporting marriage equality actually makes embracing marriage equality much smarter politics than in past years and would energize the Democratic base - a much needed move in a time when many democrats feel they’re voting against the Republican nominee rather than for Obama. People who vote primarily on issues like “preserving traditional marriage” won’t be voting for Obama regardless of this issue. Taking this stand publicly and long before he is in the full swing of the general election allows Obama to support marriage equality and energize his base without making it a defining issue for his campaign. He can continue to focus on the economy, and simultaneously push the Republican field farther to the right by making them focus on issues other than jobs and the economy.

We’ve already seen the Republican primary be driven by the Occupy Wall Street message of income inequality (“vulture capitalists”), and this announcement would allow the left to help set the agenda of the Republican primaries again. For independent voters who care about the economy and jobs, focusing on marriage during the campaign will make these candidates seem even more disconnected than Romney’s envy comments or his dismissal of $374,000 as ‘not very much.’ For those who see Romney as the biggest threat against Obama in the general election, it also pushes him to talk more about social issues, a topic on which primary voters don’t trust him.

Is the State of the Union the right place for this announcement? Possibly. It would be be a huge symbolic gesture, not unlike Secretary Clinton’s speech to the UN, but it could also lend more weight to the argument that Republicans will inevitably make when they claim that Obama is not focused on jobs.

Regardless of the venue of the announcement, coming out for marriage equality in the coming weeks in response to states that will have marriage battles gearing up (Washington, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota and possibly Maine) would be the perfect opportunity to finish his evolution, rally his base, and cause the Republican party to focus on a social issue as they sprint to the most conservative wings of their party and further alienate moderate voters.