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Adam Bink makes "The Case for Victory in North Carolina" on May 8th for Amendment 1

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Adam Bink has been paying very close attention to the campaign to defeat NC's Amendment 1, which will be before the voters on May 8, 2012 -- just five weeks away. In an op-ed published in The Advocate, Adam demolishes the conventional wisdom being uttered by many of the naysayers -- and lays out the case for winning. It's a must read. Here are the first three reasons. Read Adam's full op-ed for the other five.

Some of the biggest upsets have come unexpectedly because underlying dynamics go ignored. Consider:

1. North Carolina voters support Amendment One... until they learn what it does. On March 29, Public Policy Polling (PPP), one of the most respected independent polling firms on the issue of same-sex marriage, found that support for the measure plummets when those surveyed understand the broad harms of Amendment One. Although the poll finds majority support for Amendment One, it also reveals that support falls below 50% when they learn what it does — and a 34% plurality say they are "not sure exactly" what Amendment One does, while 28% think it would only ban marriage. These numbers follow Elon University's poll in mid-March that showed 57% of likely voters oppose an amendment "that would prevent civil unions and domestic partnerships for same-sex couples." It leaves a window for a successful campaign if it’s fully funded to educate voters on what Amendment One would really do. PPP's Director Tom Jensen emphasized this point: "When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions their tune changes quite a bit. Only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed. So despite the large current lead for the amendment, there is some hope for those trying to defeat it. It's just going to take a lot of education and effort over the final six weeks to make sure voters really understand exactly what they're voting on."

2. Conservative support for Amendment One is crumbling. In just the past week, North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis conceded that future generations are likely to repeal Amendment One within 20 years, given the age trend in support for same-sex marriage. Former Charlotte Mayor and Republican gubernatorial nominee Richard Vinroot came out opposed to Amendment One, joining other elected leaders like Tea Party Congresswoman Renee Ellmers. And John Hood, known as "the voice of conservatism in North Carolina" as president of the conservative John Locke Foundation, wrote in his statewide syndicated column that Amendment One is "unwise and unfair."

3. The pro-equality coalition opposing Amendment One is diverse, deep and unified. President Obama, who rarely speaks out on state ballot measures, went out of his way to release a statement via his campaign on March 16, noting that Amendment One would "single out and discriminate against committed gay and lesbian couples." He joins the North Carolina NAACP, the North Carolina Council of Churches, Alliance of Baptists, and dozens of other faith leaders in speaking to North Carolina's African-American population and Democrats in general. Cathy Bessant, former head of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce and the top North Carolina official at Bank of America (which is headquartered in Charlotte and is one of the largest employers in the state) filmed a video against Amendment One. Democratic Gov. Bev Purdue, Sen. Kay Hagan, and every other state Democratic officeholder who has been asked have all also spoken out against Amendment One. Progressive organizations like Courage Campaign and the Human Rights Campaign along with bloggers from sites like Pam's House Blend, DailyKos, AMERICABlog are working daily to defeat Amendment One. Even Democratic National Committee Chairwoman and Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, herself a supporter of marriage equality, said she would "certainly consider" funding the campaign to defeat Amendment One, and is in talks with the Coalition to Protect NC Families.
Okay, one more: Adam also notes that "Opponents of Amendment One have stepped up to help fund the campaign." - That includes many of you. And, as Pam Spaulding reports today, big donors from within the state are ponying up:
Big announcement from Protect All NC Families this AM: “A generous businesswoman and her husband have stepped up to offer a $25,000 matching gift to our campaign. This means that every dollar that you give to us will be doubled up to $25,000 — which would mean an additional $50,000 for our campaign.”
That's a straight couple putting up some serious money. Now, we just need the big gay money to start pouring in. The other side is preparing to run its ads. We cannot lose because we were outspent.

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