From the latest Field Poll in California, we see the dramatic shift in support for same-sex marriage over the past three decades. But, it's not quite at a majority -- yet:
The Field Poll's analysis of issue trends identifies the same troubling dynamic for the Republican Party: Nonpartisans are much closer to Democrats in attitude than Republicans.The Field Poll is considered "The poll" for California. It's the gold standard for the Golden State.
Despite the passage of Proposition 8 outlawing same-sex marriage last year, California voters as a whole have become much more accepting of same-sex marriage over the past three decades.
In 1977, opposition was 2-to-1, 62 percent to 31 percent. Now, a near majority, 49 percent, supports same-sex marriage to 44 percent that does not.
During that period, Democratic support for same-sex marriage has soared, flipping from 2-to-1 opposition in 1977 to 2-to-1 support today, 64 percent to 30 percent.
In 1977, 30 percent of Republicans supported same-sex marriages, dropping to 23 percent in 2009.
As for nonpartisans, 57 percent favor and 38 percent oppose same-sex marriage today. In 1977, opinions were reversed, 38 percent support to 55 percent opposition. Support for legal abortions has also increased significantly since the 1970s. In 1975, 51 percent of California voters favored abortion rights. In 2006, 70 percent did.
Again, Democratic support has swelled over the decades while Republican support is virtually unchanged.
So, this shows progress and it's heading in the right direction -- except with Republicans. Fortunately, there is a shrinking pool of Republicans in that state, but the remaining base is really hard-core and anti-gay.
This should add some fodder to the great debate in California over whether to push for a repeal of Prop, 8 in 2010 or 2012. While they're all discussing that, there is definitely a referendum to repeal the new same-sex marriage law in Maine. And, there may well be a referendum in Washington State. We need to focus energy and resources on those two efforts this fall. We have to win.
