These numbers are almost too good to be true. But they come from PPP, one of the most respected polling firms.
57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new [same-sex] marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin.Adam goes on to mention that "I'm generally very skeptical of the power of the bully pulpit." I think too many Democrats are/were. And it's too bad. I don't think the President helped matters any the first few years of his administration - I think he was also too skeptical of his own oratorical powers, and those of his office.
The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed.
Don't get me wrong. It's not like you simply put the President out there and you necessarily win. Give him the wrong message at the wrong time with the wrong back up and he may even make matters worse. PR is a complicated field. But done well, it works.
